On the Eve of Earnings

We are on the eve of a lot tech earnings over the next few weeks.  ADTN reported last night and hosted their call this morning.  Guidance was in line and the business was good, but not good enough to sustain the current multiple if you have been a recent buyer.  Look at a 10Y weekly on the company.

Any questions?  I did not like so, but in case you missed the point of the chart it tells me that the multiple got stretched and it was prudent to sell as the price level was in an abnormal position.

Decisions, decisions, decisions…what should a tech investor do?  As for concerns we have a lot to choose from: US Govt debt ceiling fight, end of QEII, Japan nuclear mess, consumer spending, unemployment and looming confrontation on sovereign taxes.  From a macro perspective it is hard to be excited and easier to be bearish.  Maybe sell in May and go away is a prudent action.

Here is my first attempt at setting up the first portfolio post of the new blog which is a work in progress.  As I have more time to post, I will expand on the details in the portfolio section, but to start I will look at the portfolio from a sector basis and add equity detail in the sectors in the future.  The general approach is 14 sectors composed of ~65 sub sectors and ~800 equities.  Today I will start with the 14 primary sectors.

4/13/2011
Sector Equities Bias
Semi Equipment / Process 29 NEUTRAL
Semiconductors – Legacy 25 SHORT
Semiconductors – Core 58 LONG
ODM, EMS, Disty, Photonics 42 NEUTRAL
Hardware – Commercial 29 SHORT
Hardware – Personal 24 LONG
Networking – Infrastructure 53 LONG
Software 61 LONG
Service Providers 103 SHORT
Internet 28 LONG
Digital Media 21 LONG
Clean Tech – Solar, Power, Water 133 SHORT
Consumption 8 SHORT
Materials 29 NEUTRAL

– GC

3 thoughts on “On the Eve of Earnings

  1. Pingback: Three Dislocations: Will They Meet? « SIWDT

  2. Pingback: Looking at the Big Picture and Connecting the Dots II « SIWDT

  3. Pingback: 11 Days to Quarter Close: What are you doing with your tech portfolio? « SIWDT

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