RIMM Pre Announcement and Smartphones
January 18, 2011: a cold, rainy, crappy night in NYC. I am there to meet a hedge fund manager for a job interview, but he wants me to meet with another manager too so it is a dual interview. During the interview, the second HFM asks me what is my recommendation regarding RIMM. He is long a lot of RIMM. My response was to sell the RIMM, but if he wanted to keep it then he should short NOK ahead of their investor day as a hedge. He gives me a strange look and asks why he should sell the RIMM. I tell him that RIMM and NOK are in negative product cycles that will not end well. I have no idea what he did with the positions since he has not responded to any emails since the interview, but I do know what the stocks have done:
RIMM is down 20% since January 18 (yes it has been up and down, but should open up another 900-1200bps down in the morning).
NOK is down 23% since January 18.
If you think I am grandstanding…well…yes I am, but look at my April 15 post on GOOG. Have a nice night.
Side note…a friend emailed me this during the RIMM conference call “Even the EMs starting to soften. They [are] citing LATAM. GFK has been noting EMEA flattening fast; could roll soon. If the INT growth story is cooked, what is there………? I maintain US has gone negative net adds. Permanently. VZ was the still the largest installed base. Can’t tell me they stopped sub disclosure numbers for any other reason.”