October 2011 Earnings 1.0
Here is the start of my October 2011 earnings thread. I am already a bit late having been positive on GOOG from the past, I did tweet it last week. A few reactions so far:
GOOG: Sticking with my GOOG call from April, not much to update.
INTC: I have been positive on INTC based on my web 3.0 thesis. It will be interesting to see if results were strong enough to break INTC out of the ten year down channel on a weekly basis. Need a close above $22, but a close above $23.16 on a weekly basis would be a strong signal as that is the 38.2% Fibb going back to 2002. I pitched this stock and thesis to a PM in NYC in September and he laughed at me. Who is laughing now?
AAPL: I still like the product cycles and would be a buyer as it settles. It is all about product cycles.
JNPR: JNPR was defiantly on the mind when I was thinking about my web 3.0 thesis and Moore’s Law exhaustion. I read about fifteen reports on JNPR this morning, which is probably ten too many. I would start by saying I think the company is in the midst of (i) product, (ii) market and (iii) leadership transitions. These three forces need to harmonize for the company to go on a run and I do not see that happening for some time.
INFN: The company is making a bet on 100G and that they have the ability to scale their business to be a supplier in size to tier 1 service providers. One cannot criticize the company for not taking on difficult endeavors.
APKT: Waiting on the official results after the pre neg which I posted about here.
YHOO: I think this stock is un-investible. Negative product cycles and poor leadership; are there any other questions?
PWAV: I posted some thoughts on that last night.
MACRO: The market is really difficult to deal with on a daily and weekly basis. It reminds me so much of 2008, even though I see people on CNBC who say it is not 2008. I have posted on this in the past, but I will add when the market swings on reports from news outlets like Reuters, CNBC, WSJ and government officials and central bankers, we might as well appoint a Committee of Public Safety and start the Reign of Terror.
I will endeavor to post additional updates to this tread over the next few days.
Stocks of interest in the next few days:
10.19: RVBD, WDC
10.20: NOK, ERIC, T, STX, MSFT
10.21: GE, VZ
* It is all about the network stupid, because it is all about compute. *
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