Writer’s Block Leads to Stock Picking…

I had dinner in NYC with an old acquaintance from my stint on the buy side.  During dinner I was asked what I like long and short.  Admittedly, I have been in more cash, HY credit and some gold for the past six months and I have not really thought about equities.  There I was almost half way through my second Manhattan at Keens (wow, what a bar at that place) in midtown talking stocks.  It was pretty fun to just rattle off tickers and sectors.  It seems like a long time since I just talked stocks and positions.  In rapid fire, here is a summary of some longs, shorts and thoughts.

Long:

  • BRCM – Product cycles
  • GOOG – The empire
  • AMZN – Amazing potential to compete in so many businesses
  • LNKD – 3-5 year run.  More valuable than FB.
  • EMC – People go to work every day and create more stuff that needs to be stored.  It is endless.
  • QCOM – Good place to be.

Things to Think About:

  • AAPL – I love AAPL products, but unless there is another product as meaningful as the iPhone, we have peaked.
  • JNPR – In a box.  Not an innovator, cannot muscle enough R&D to the point of attack in multiple markets.
  • TLAB – All done.
  • RIMM – Missed product cycles kill.
  • CSCO – Hard to see why any LO wants to own it.  Not a grower without M&A.  Cash is trapped off shore.  Hard to see how it performs against the bench, thus I find it hard to see why any PM wants to be big in it.
  • Towers – Safe place.
  • Mobile – If Softbank gets into Sprint, is mobile a sector short?
  • Mobile Infrastructure – Margin compression, stay away
  • PCs – Going to leave a deep mark
  • HPQ – Will not be long till the deep value guys start to work on it.  They are not working on it yet.
  • Social Gaming – All done.  Yes, it was a fad.
  • ORCL – Peaked?
  • RVBD – Big gamble, what are they trying to say?
  • FFIV – Just right here or ?
  • GRPN – This was never a real business, was it?
  • GOLD – Yea, I long gold and will buy on dips.  It is complicated and emotional, but it is what it is.

If you are still reading at this point and what to go on some tickers, send me an email or leave a comment and we will throw down.

/wrk

4 thoughts on “Writer’s Block Leads to Stock Picking…

    • MSFT – uptrend is broken, support around $24. Secular trend stinks too.
      VMW – Resting nicely at the top of the run. Not sure there is anything to push it higher.

  1. INTC – Missed Mobile/Tablet product cycle but priced in, good mgmt and has a history of turning the ship
    CIEN ?
    APKT?

    Disagree on QCOM – Kind of priced for perfection but I’m not strident on that one

    Agree on LNKD, got in this argument with a 25 year-old 3 years ago. More obvious today. Short FB long LNKD

    Your categorization of GOLD as “emotional” is spot on.

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