Four Reasons Why I am Bullish on CSCO…

I have been a known CSCO bear in the past.  All you need to do is click on the CSCO category on my blog to see two years worth of postings.  Recently, I have become a CSCO bull for the long term.  I have been building a position in the $23-24.25 range.  I did not become bullish on CSCO because I did some work on it and found some facts to fit my thesis.  It was a different path that lead me to becoming bullish.
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Market Thoughts Post Labor Day Weekend 2013

I recently made a market call ahead of July earnings thinking that the market might crack.  I have updated my SPX chart from my July Market Call posts, which you can read here and here.  I am currently LONG a lot of volatility.  It is currently working well and next week when the bond traders come back and we get NFP, Fed events, tapering no tapering, Syria, conference season, deficit ceiling, etc., I am happy to keep the lon vol trade on.  I am also long CL1 here and some high quality large cap tech stocks on the thesis of buy backs and dividends.  I have one big loser on the LONG side and that is FIO.  I hope they get taken out at this point. Continue reading

Market Mea Culpa, DevOps, Opco Tech Conf and Summer 2013

My July market call did not work out.  I am long some equities and long some vol (which is not working out), with a high percentage cash position.  The Yen short worked.  I am looking forward to the upcoming Cisco results as they will be the first to report a July month and if their guidance for enterprise spending is positive, I will go long high beta tech growth names.
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Quick Equity Thoughts…

Now that we have finished with confusing messages from the Fed week, we can move on and do some trading.  I am covering my SPX short with a 800bps loss.  The market will not turn down despite fund outflows, higher weekly claims, UPS pre neg, China GDP, earnings and guidance.  I am staying long VOL through earnings.  I will buy the QQQs today to increase net long SPX exposure to ~1700.  Maybe I am being fooled by the B wave, but who knows.  I will get some tailwind with the MS upgrade of NTAP this morning.  
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Updated: July 2013 Market Call

Ahead of the NFP, I prefer be short the SPX and YEN and long VOL.  I am going to look for some stupid strong GOLD day and will short GOLD when I see it.  I think GOLD is going to $1000.  Regarding my prior post on the carry trade being blown up and the change from duration to economic targets and what this did for gamma…blah, blah…read this article on Bridgewater interest hedging.
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July 2013 Market Call

Here is a link to my short term SPX chart, following up on last night’s post. I did watch the market today and that was nothing to get excited about on the long side. A few wildcards to deal with: (i) short week, (ii) NFP on Friday and (iii) earnings kick off in ~2 weeks. I updated my short terms SPX chart here. I also posted a picture of my SPX chart below. I think we will have a mini-rally into the NFP and we might continue to rally into next week as this is a holiday week.

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Old Habits Are Hard to Avoid: Eurodollar Stresses, Chinese ATMs and a Little Voice Telling Met to Get Out…

I am going to attempt to be brief as not to bore too many readers.  I have been spending the last few years fully immersed in networking and building a venture backed technology company.  Every now and then something in the financial world happens that stirs up memories from 2007-2008.  The last time I logged into a BBG terminal (FYI…BB journalists can independently confirm) was Feb 2011 and I am not following the markets.  In fact, I have gone days without looking at the markets, but I have been trading more frequently as readers will know.  For the record, I closed my shorts on GOLD and Treasuries on Friday.  I am long: MS, C, INTC, MSFT, FIO, NTAP and ERIC.  I took some profit in BSFT and will buy back in at a good technical entry point.

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Espresso and Equities

After approximately 15,000 pulled shots, I had to replace the piston the in my Pavoni home machine. I typically pull my shots ristretto style and I think over the past twelve years this abuse took a toll on the original the piston. Espresso 1 Espresso 2 Espresso 3I took apart the machine for more than a good cleaning and ordered a new brass piston to replace the molded piston that came with the machine. In the pictures to the left you can see the old piston and the new all brass piston.  The old piston broke and thus the seal was gone.  The good news is we are up and running and my beloved Pavoni is as good as the day it came home.
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Quick Equity Thoughts

I received a number of emails, tweets and so forth regarding my last network posts.  I am traveling to SFO this week and that means I will have some time to write a post or two.  I was in a meeting this past week with a company who was presenting some technology to Plexxi regarding multi-flow commodity graph theory modeling of networks at scale.  They did some really interesting work on the efficiencies of networks at scale and I plan to write up some of their work in a post for all the people who sent me emails about virtues of Valiant load balancing.
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Guest Post: Technology Is Not Destroying Jobs Poor Policy Is

The following is from my friend and former investment manager Doug Rudisch.  The essay has already been reblogged on ZeroHedge.com  I asked Doug to post it to my blog a few weeks ago when I read an early draft.  Even though it is now replicated on few major financial sites, I thought it was worth posting here for the technology focus.

/wrk
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Commodity Sell Off…

Tough day to be long GOLD.  It has taken out the 1437 that I wrote about last week.  As predicted 1300 could happen real fast.  I would not be surprised to see GOLD get to 1309 by tomorrow and then take a breather.  That would erase the the 2011 gold rally.   We should find some support around 1300.  We will need to test conviction at 1300 otherwise 1145 is the next stopping point.

 

/wrk

Notebook 02.19.13: Merchant Silicon, Insieme, Controllers, Portfolio and stuff…

Before the week is over, I am going to write a blog post entitled “Imagine that SDN Did Not Exist, What Would Do with All the Free Time?”  That is something I will find the time to crank out either on my current flight to SFO or the return flight.  Until then, here are a few things I have been collecting in my SIWDT Evernote to write about.
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Portfolio Update…

I have made a few tweaks to the portfolio.  I tag all the stock picking posts with the “Portfolio” category.  That is the bit bucket if you need to review the past.  I have been buying VMW down here around $76-78 range.  There are many reasons for this, but first I SecondLife-User-Concurrency-ChartEMC-Buys.jpgwant to say I was not long into the print.
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