RIMM Pre Announcement and Smartphones

January 18, 2011: a cold, rainy, crappy night in NYC.  I am there to meet a hedge fund manager for a job interview, but he wants me to meet with another manager too so it is a dual interview.  During the interview, the second HFM asks me what is my recommendation regarding RIMM.  He is long a lot of RIMM.  My response was to sell the RIMM, but if he wanted to keep it then he should short NOK ahead of their investor day as a hedge.  He gives me a strange look and asks why he should sell the RIMM.  I tell him that RIMM and NOK are in negative product cycles that will not end well.  I have no idea what he did with the positions since he has not responded to any emails since the interview, but I do know what the stocks have done:

RIMM is down 20% since January 18 (yes it has been up and down, but should open up another 900-1200bps down in the morning).

NOK is down 23% since January 18.

If you think I am grandstanding…well…yes I am, but look at my April 15 post on GOOG.  Have a nice night.

Side note…a friend emailed me this during the RIMM conference call “Even the EMs starting to soften.  They [are] citing LATAM.  GFK has been noting EMEA flattening fast; could roll soon.  If the INT growth story is cooked, what is there………?  I maintain US has gone negative net adds.  Permanently.  VZ was the still the largest installed base.  Can’t tell me they stopped sub disclosure numbers for any other reason.”